Abstract
The Medium-Term Macroeconomic Framework (MEF) is the primary analytical tool used by the Department of Macro-Fiscal and Development Finance for producing multi-year projections of Bhutan's gross domestic product (GDP), sectoral output, and fiscal revenues. The framework integrates supply-side sectoral equations with demand-side national accounts identities to generate internally consistent projections over a 3-to-5-year horizon.
Key Features
Industries & Commodities33 industries · 48 commodities from Bhutan's 2017 supply and use tables
Production StructureCES value-added nesting: capital, salaried and self-employed labour
Trade SpecificationArmington import aggregation · CET export allocation across destinations
Dynamic SpecificationRecursive-dynamic capital accumulation (Jung-Thorbecke)
Climate Change ModuleExtended electricity sector module capturing seasonal hydro generation (summer/winter split)
Household TypesUrban and rural households with Linear Expenditure System (LES) demand
Government AccountsFull fiscal block: taxes, royalties, subsidies, transfers, and budget balance closure
Calibration Year2017 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Bhutan
Contact / Further Information
For technical queries regarding this model, please contact the Department of Macro-Fiscal and Development Finance,
Ministry of Finance, Royal Government of Bhutan.
mfpd@mof.gov.bt