Kilkhor Model
Date: October 2025
Authors: Véronique Robichaud, Pema Dorji, Karma MP Dorji, Chimi Dema, Sejal Chhetri, Pema Wangdi, Rinchen Dolkar, Lungten Tshewang, Phurpa Gyeltshen, Thinley Penjor, Yeshi Lhendup
Prepared for: Ministry of Finance, Royal Government of Bhutan
Financial support: GEF-UNDP "Enhancing Climate Resilience for Urban Landscape" project; Asian Development Bank
Topic: Fiscal Policy & Macroeconomic Analysis
Publication type: Technical / Working Paper
Base year: 2017 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM)
Model type: Recursive-Dynamic CGE with Climate Change Module
Cite as: Robichaud, V., et al. (2025). Kilkhor — Dynamic Climate Change based Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for Bhutan. Ministry of Finance. https://mof.gov.bt/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/CGE_Bhutan_CC_ELE_websites-1.pdf

Abstract

KILKHOR is a Dynamic Climate Change based Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model prepared with financial support from the "Enhancing Climate Resilience for Urban Landscape" project, financed through GEF-UNDP. The base model for KILKHOR — a dynamic CGE model for Bhutan — was developed with the support of the Asian Development Bank. The climate change based CGE model enhances and extends the dynamic CGE model to assess the impact of climate change through an electricity sector module. The model covers 33 industries and 48 commodities derived from Bhutan's 2017 supply and use tables, and incorporates CES value-added nesting, Armington import aggregation, CET export allocation, and recursive-dynamic capital accumulation for multi-period simulations.

Key Features

Industries & Commodities33 industries · 48 commodities from Bhutan's 2017 supply and use tables
Production StructureCES value-added nesting: capital, salaried and self-employed labour
Trade SpecificationArmington import aggregation · CET export allocation across destinations
Dynamic SpecificationRecursive-dynamic capital accumulation (Jung-Thorbecke)
Climate Change ModuleExtended electricity sector module capturing seasonal hydro generation (summer/winter split)
Household TypesUrban and rural households with Linear Expenditure System (LES) demand
Government AccountsFull fiscal block: taxes, royalties, subsidies, transfers, and budget balance closure
Calibration Year2017 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Bhutan

Downloads

Technical documentation — KILKHOR PDF · October 2025
Model code & data files Available upon request
Contact / Further Information

For technical queries regarding this model, please contact the Department of Macro-Fiscal and Development Finance, Ministry of Finance, Royal Government of Bhutan.
mfpd@mof.gov.bt

Accessibility Toolbar